The political landscape among senior voters is shifting in unexpected ways. Traditionally, Republicans have dominated the 65-and-over demographic, but recent polls indicate that President Biden is either neck-and-neck or leading among these voters. This marks a significant trend of Democratic gains in this age group.
The Evolution of Senior Voters
The explanation for this shift is straightforward: many of today’s seniors have consistently voted Democratic throughout their lives. To understand this, we can look at Archie Bunker, the quintessential “lovable bigot” from the 1970s sitcom “All in the Family.” The show highlighted the generational clash between Archie, a conservative working-class man, and his liberal son-in-law, Michael.
Fifteen years ago, senior voters were largely from the Greatest Generation, those who grew up before World War II and often leaned conservative. This generation reacted to the 2008 nomination of Barack Obama by shifting right, with many voting for John McCain.
However, the seniors of 2024 are not Archie Bunker’s generation. They are mostly baby boomers, like Michael and Gloria from “All in the Family,” who are now in their 70s. Unlike their predecessors, these boomers have a history of leaning more liberal.
Changing Demographics
The current senior demographic is vastly different from a decade ago. Icons like Madonna, Ellen DeGeneres, and Katie Couric are now considered seniors. By the 2024 election, baby boomers will comprise over 70% of the senior vote, a significant increase from zero percent in 2008.
While boomers have a reputation for being conservative, they are relatively more liberal than the older generations they’ve replaced. This shift explains why Democrats have made steady gains among senior voters over the past decade.
In 2012, Mitt Romney won seniors by nearly 10 points. However, data suggests that the voters who are seniors today backed Obama by a slight margin when they were younger, which indicates a potential Democratic tilt in the current senior demographic.
Impact of Longevity
The composition of today’s seniors also reflects longer life spans, particularly among women and college graduates, who are generally more likely to vote Democratic. For example, Mary Richards from “The Mary Tyler Moore Show,” would be 84 today and likely a Democratic voter.
Women live almost six years longer than men on average, and college graduates live about eight years longer than those without a degree. These longevity trends mean the surviving senior population is skewed more towards demographics that lean Democratic.
Future Implications
While Biden’s success among today’s seniors doesn’t guarantee a win, it continues a trend seen in the 2020 election, where he won 48% of senior votes, mirroring Obama’s performance among the same group when they were younger. This suggests that demographic changes, rather than shifts in political attitudes, are driving Democratic gains.
The Conservative Shift Among Younger Voters
As boomers age into the 65-and-older category, the 45-to-64 demographic has become more conservative, dominated by Generation X. This generation, shaped by the Reagan era, has consistently leaned more right than the boomers.
Shows like “Family Ties,” featuring the Reagan-loving teenager Alex P. Keaton, reflected this conservative bent. Data indicates that voters in the 45-to-64 age group, who were in their 40s during Romney’s 2012 campaign, have grown even more conservative over the last decade.
Surprisingly, despite Democratic losses among younger voters, the departure of the Archie Bunkers from the electorate has balanced the scales, contributing to the current tight race in the upcoming presidential election.
In summary, the evolving demographics of senior voters are reshaping political trends, with the Democratic gains among older voters being a significant factor in the close political contests we see today.
